Predicting the potential distribution of an endemic steppe species Artemisia salsoloides Willd. Under the climate change

Abstract

Climate change poses a risk for rare plant species distribution in the future. The aim of this study was to predict the impact of moderate climate change on the growth and distribution of the rare endemic steppe species Artemisia salsoloides Willd. with the use of the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt). A. salsoloides distribution under moderate climate change (RCP 4.5 scenario) for 2040-2060 and 2061-2080 was modelled using a set of bioclimatic rasters (BIOCLIM) from the CHELSA database and topographic variables from GMTED2010. Model results showed an increase in the area of low and medium suitable habitats to the northeast of the current range, with no significant change in the area of highly suitable habitat predicted. The resulting models also showed no significant decline in habitat suitability in the current present sites in the future. Thus, moderate climate change will not have a significant negative impact on the distribution of the species, and no additional protection measures for the species in response to climate change are needed.