Relação temporal entre pluviosidade, temperatura e ocorrência de casos de dengue em São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil

Abstract

This study analyzed the relationship between rainfall, temperature and occurrence of dengue cases. Ecological study performed with autochthonous dengue cases reported during 2003 to 2010 in São Luís, Maranhão. Data of rainfall and temperature were collected monthly. The monthly incidence of dengue cases was calculated by year/100,000 inhabitants. In order to identify the influence of climate variables and dengue cases different distributed lag models using negative binomial distribution were considered. Model selection was based on the lowest AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). Thirteen thousand, four hundred forty-four cases of dengue between 2003 and 2010 were reported, with peaks in 2005, 2007 and 2010. The correlation between rainfall and the occurrence of dengue cases showed increase in the first months after the rainy months. Occurrence of dengue cases was observed during all the period of study. Only rainfall-lag per three months showed a positive association with the number of cases dengue. Thus, this municipality is considered as an endemic and epidemic site. In addition, the relation between rainfall and dengue cases was significant with a lag of three months. These results should be useful to the future development of politics healthy for dengue prevention and control.