Canonical correlation between storage volumes in dams and precipitation intensities during hurricanes

Abstract

The operation and the security of dams have been of great importance in Mexico for many years. The policies of operation in dams are widely studied in modern hydraulics. The extreme events that affect our country cause these policies to be reviewed year after year. The present work presents an application of the multivariate technique of Canonical Analysis to correlate the values of intensity of precipitation during a hurricane event, calculated with the technique of the hydrostatimator, with the variation of the volumes inside a reservoir, without using parametric characteristics of the contribution basins. The case of Hurricane Carlotta (June 2012) is presented, obtaining the estimation of the volume of storage in the dams: Ing, Carlos Ramírez Ulloa, Valerio Trujano, Tepuxtepec, and Infiernillo. The results show a correlation higher than 0.90 in the existing relationship of the hurricane rainfall intensities and the evolution of levels in dams. These results allow us to consider the Canonical Analysis, as an alternative to detail the policies of operation of dams in Mexico.