Analysis of driving factors for land subsidence in typical cities of the North China Plain based on geodetector technology

Abstract

The North China Plain is vital hub for agricultural production and urban development. However, decades of excessive groundwater extraction have resulted on significant land subsidence, posing severe threats to the region’s socio-economic stability and sustainable development. The relationship between land deformation and groundwater storage Anomalies in this region remains insufficiently understood, and the driving factors behind land subsidence require further exploration. This study employs downscaled GRACE and SBAS InSAR technologies to monitor and analyze land subsidence and groundwater storage Anomalies in four representative cities of the North China Plain: Beijing, Tianjin, Cangzhou, and Hengshui. Using geodetector methods, the study investigates the driving factors of land subsidence, incorporating both natural environmental and human activity factors. The results indicate that: (1) Groundwater storage in the North China Plain generally exhibited an overall declining trend from 2002 to 2022, with the rate of decrease weakening from southwest to northeast, showing a clear spatial clustering pattern. (2) While, land subsidence rates in the main urban areas of each city were relatively low, severe subsidence persisted in the surrounding suburban and rural areas. (3) The temporal trends of land subsidence were consistent with changes in groundwater storage across all cities. (4) Groundwater storage Anomalies emerged as the most significant factor influencing the spatial distribution of land subsidence, with a q-value of 0.387, followed by factors such as DEM, evapotranspiration, and rainfall. Seasonal characteristics were evident in land deformation corresponding to groundwater storage Anomalies: During the spring and summer irrigation periods, land subsidence occurred due to groundwater depletion, while in autumn and winter, the surface uplifted with increased groundwater storage. In Cangzhou and Hengshui, excessive deep groundwater extraction caused a lagged response in land subsidence relative to groundwater storage Anomalies. Furthermore, interaction among various factors significantly amplified their influence on land subsidence. The interaction between groundwater storage Anomalies and rainfall had the strongest combined effect, underscoring its critical role in shaping land subsidence in the study area. The findings offer valuable insights for the scientific prevention and management of land subsidence in the North China Plain.