The impact of children on divorce risk

Abstract

Based on the data of the first wave of the Chinese Family Panel Study in 2010, this paper studies the relationship of divorce risk and four variables related to children in China: premarital births and number, age, and gender of children. We find that all four variables have significant effects on divorce risk. Specifically, (1) couples who have premarital children are more likely to divorce; (2) the higher the number of children, the more stable the marriage, but the marginal effect declines with the increase of the number of children; (3) younger children reduce the risk of divorce more than older ones; and (4) couples who have sons are less likely to divorce. All these findings are consistent with studies conducted in other countries and suggest that children play an important role in stabilizing marriage and resolving conflicts in marriage. We also find that the positive effect of children on marital stability and the effect of children’s gender are stronger in rural areas, which is due to the differences in modernization and cultural values between rural and urban areas. These findings imply that changes in marriage values and the decline of the fertility rate are two important causes of the recent increase of the divorce rate in China.