Predictors of length of stay in intensive care unit after coronary artery bypass grafting: Development a risk scoring system

Abstract

Introduction: To determine predictors of length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and to develop a risk scoring system were the objectives of this study. Methods: In this retrospective study, 1202 patients' medical records after CABG were evaluated by a research-made checklist. Tarone-Ware test was used to determine the predictors of patients' LOS in the ICU. Cox regression model was used to determine the risk factors and risk ratios associated with ICU LOS. Results: The mean ICU LOS after CABG was 55.27±17.33 hours. Cox regression model showed that having more than two chest tubes (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.005-1.287, Relative Risk [RR]=1.138), occurrence of atelectasis (95% CI 1.000-3.007, RR=1.734), and occurrence of atrial fibrillation after CABG (95% CI 1.428-2.424, RR=1.861) were risk factors associated with longer ICU LOS. The discrimination power of this set of predictors was demonstrated with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and it was 0.69. A simple risk scoring system was developed based on three identified predictors that can raise ICU LOS. Conclusion: The simple risk scoring system developed based on three identified predictors can help to plan more accurately a patient's LOS in hospital for CABG and can be useful in managing human and financial resources.