Effect of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Events on the Second Inter-monsoonal Rainfall in the Wet Zone of Sri Lanka

Abstract

The climatic variations in the Indian Ocean have a strong relationship with the rainfall anomaly of Sri Lanka. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an ocean-atmospheric coupled phenomenon associated with an east-west gradient in the tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Identifying the impact of IOD phenomenon on the spatial and temporal variation of the rainfall pattern is a useful tool for seasonal climate forecasting. The present study examined the influence of IOD on the Second Inter-monsoon (SIM) rains of the Wet zone (WZ) of Sri Lanka. Considering 16 rain-gauge locations scattered in the WZ of Sri Lanka covering nine Agro-ecological Regions (AERs), daily rainfall time series for 44-years (1976-2019) were collected. The IOD-positive and IOD-negative years were extracted based on the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) over the neutral years. Five rainfall indices, namely, cumulative rainfall, the maximum rainfall received within a day, number of wet days, heavy rainfall events and the maximum consecutive dry days were statistically analysed. The results revealed a significant positive anomaly of mean cumulative rainfall in the SIM season during the IOD-positive years while in IOD-negative years this anomaly was negative (p<0.05). An apparent increase or decrease of number of wet days and heavy rainfall events was observed during IOD-positive or IOD-negative years, respectively. However, the mean maximum consecutive dry days showed a distinct negative anomaly with the positive IOD events and positive anomaly with the negative IOD events. Further investigations are suggested to elucidate the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced anomalous variation over IOD impacts.