Multifield Analog Prediction of Short-Term Climate Fluctuations Using a Climate State vector

Abstract

Abstract A theoretical framework is developed to consider the abilities of analog techniques for the prediction of short-term climate fluctuations. The basic element of the framework is the definition of a “climate state vector.” This vector points to the position of a “climate particle” whose motion in a multi-dimensional hyper-space represents the time evolution of the climate system. The particle has a number of properties that describe regional covariability of various climatic fields. A series of metrics are assigned to the space in which the climate particle moves. These metrics are used to select past states of the climate system which are analogs to a “current” state. The subsequent prediction is made based on the past evolution of the climate state Vector. Forecasts made with the analog selection techniques are evaluated in terms of the local and global skills that attend them. Thus both the spatial and temporal dependence of the skill score field is examined. Predictions were made for the season...