Cases of Road Traffic Accident in Nigeria: A Time Series Approach

Abstract

Road traffic accident in Nigeria is increasing at a disturbing rate and has raised one of the country major concerns. We provide appropriate and suitable time series model for the cases of road accident; the minor cases, the serious cases, the fatal cases and the total cases of road accident in Nigeria. The most widely used conventional method of time series known as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model (also known as Box-Jenkins method) is applied to the annual cases of road accident data in Nigeria from 1960-2013, to determine patterns of road traffic accident cases along the Nigeria motorway. Appropriate models are developed for the minor cases, the serious cases, the fatal cases and the total cases. ARIMA (1,1,1) model is obtained for the minor and total cases, ARIMA (1,1,0) model is obtained for the serious cases, while ARIMA(0,1,1) model is obtained for the fatal cases using data from 1960-2011. Data from 2012 to 2013 is used to test the adequacy and performance of the models. The models are then used to forecast the different cases from 2014 till 2020, and the forecast show an average increase in the data for the cases considered.