A clinical predictive model of renal injury in children with isolated antenatal hydronephrosis

Abstract

Background. Antenatal hydronephrosis (ANH) affects ~1-5% of pregnancies. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction model of renal injury in a large cohort of infants with isolated ANH. Methods. This is a longitudinal cohort study of 447 infants with ANH admitted since birth between 1989 and 2015 at a tertiary care center. The primary endpoint was time until the occurrence of a composite event of renal injury, which includes proteinuria, hypertension and chronic kidney disease (CKD). A predictive model was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model and evaluated by C-statistics. Results. Renal pelvic dilatation (RPD) was classified into two groups [Grades 1-2 (n ¼ 255) versus Grades 3-4 (n ¼ 192)]. The median follow-up time was 6.4 years (interquartile range 2.8-12.5). Thirteen patients (2.9%) developed proteinuria, 6 (1.3%) hypertension and 14 (3.1%) CKD Stage 2. All events occurred in patients with RPD Grades 3-4. After adjustment, three covariables remained as predictors of the composite event: creatinine {hazard ratio [HR] 1.27, [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.56]}, renal parenchyma thickness at birth [HR 0.78(95% CI 0.625-0.991)] and recurrent urinary tract infections [HR 4.52 (95% CI 1.49-13.6)]. The probability of renal injury at 15 years of age was estimated as 0, 15 and 24% for patients assigned to the low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusion. Our findings indicate an uneventful clinical course for patients with Society for Fetal Urology (SFU) Grades 1-2 ANH. Conversely, for infants with SFU Grades 3-4 ANH, our prediction model enabled the identification of a subgroup of patients with increased risk of renal injury over time.