Scenario forecasting of agriculture institutional transformation on sustainable development base

Abstract

The aim of the study is to outline the scenarios of further institutional transformation of the Ukrainian agricultural sector based on concept of sustainable development. The basic stages of institutional transformation of the agricultural sector of Ukraine are considered in the article. The agricultural sector holds a significant place in the national economy of Ukraine in terms of share in GDP, percentage of employment, share in exports, etc. However, this does not contribute to the harmonious development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine and requires the introduction of a triple balanced development of the economic, ecological and social component, characterized by the concept of sustainable development. The authors propose to add an institutional component to these three elements. The institutional transformation of the Ukrainian agricultural sector is divided into five stages. Three scenarios of the forecast development of agricultural sector of Ukraine economy (pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic) are outlined in the article. The further perspectives concerning the national agricultural sector in the introduction of the concept of sustainable development are suggested.