The Granger Causality of Bahrain Stocks, Bitcoin, and Other Commodity Asset Returns: Evidence of Short-Term Return Spillover before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

This study examines the tendency of short-term return spillover across Bahrain stocks, bitcoin, and other commodity assets factoring in the dynamic effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study employed vector autoregression (VAR) model using the daily returns of Bahrain All Shares Index, bitcoin, crude oil, and gold futures from January 2018 to March 2022. The results showed a persistent unidirectional short-term spillover of return from the Bahrain stock market to the futures gold market for both the period before and during the pandemic. Moreover, the results also showed that the significant positive shock in the bitcoin returns as granger-caused by the returns of the Bahrain stock market is only during the period before the pandemic. Finally, a significant negative contemporaneous short-term effect on the crude oil market returns can be statistically explained by the shocks in the Bahrain stock market only during the COVID-19 period.