We (All) Want You? Perceived Military Leadership Potential and Actual Leadership Role Occupancy in Working Life: A Longitudinal Study of a Swedish Cohort

Abstract

One of the main tasks of the armed forces is to recruit and select future soldiers and to identify potential officers. However, these procedures may have a wider societal impact beyond the borders of the military organization itself. This study aims to examine how compatible assessments of military leadership potential are with those in the labor market. Using longitudinal data concerning a large cohort of Swedish males who underwent mustering during the early 1970s, we analyzed the association between officer suitability assessments and managerial role occupancy at age 50 to 55, while controlling for socio-demographic factors in childhood and adulthood. We found a high level of predictability, whereby those who were ranked highest were four times more likely to hold managerial positions than those with the lowest ranking. Results are discussed in relation to perceptions about leadership skills and possible institutional isomorphism between the armed forces and other societal organizations.