The Impact of Fatigue and Behaviour of Driver on Probability of Accidents Severity in Motorcyclists

Abstract

This study focuses on the influence of fatigue factors and driving behaviour on the probability of severely and mildly injured to motorcyclists. The respondents of this study were motorcyclists who had suffered an injury. The results of the analysis of 282 respondents with Bayes Theory and GeNie 2.0 Software showed that the probability of severely injured was 16% and mildly injured was 84%. Furthermore, the validation of the model use 100 respondents. The results of the validation show that the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) value was 10.11%. Meaning that accuracy of model is high. After that, several scenarios were performed with the aim to know the effect of each variable on the accidents severity at the time of an accident, such as: effect of driving license ownership to accident severity, effect of long duration of driving and condition of road to the fatigue, effect of machine capacity of vehicle to accident severity. This condition will give an initial description to policy makers in an effort to minimise the victim of fatality and severely injured.