Evaluating public health co-benefits of New York state’s climate leadership and community protection act

Abstract

New York State enacted the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act) in 2019, setting the state on a path toward greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality by 2050. Achieving these GHG emission reduction targets would also result in a significant decrease in emissions of other air pollutants, such as fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and other precursor pollutants. This study analyzes potential air quality and associated public health benefits from Climate Act implementation scenarios. In this study, we estimate reductions in emissions associated with the reduction in fuel combustion necessary to meet the Climate Act targets, including primary PM2.5 and precursors to PM2.5 formation — nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, ammonia, and volatile organic compounds. We estimated changes in emissions for both a policy scenario and a reference (business-as-usual) case for the following sectors: (1) electric-generating units; (2) on-road vehicles; (3) non-road engines; and (4) industrial, commercial, and residential buildings. We used the U.S. EPA’s CO-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA) to model the effect of emissions reductions on PM2.5 concentrations and ensuing public health effects. We found notable reductions in annual PM2.5 emissions (55% by 2050) and NOx emissions (80% by 2050). The greatest projected contributors to health benefits are the commercial and residential buildings sector (60%) followed by on-road transportation (18%). Contributions from the electricity sector are relatively small, regardless of renewable electricity choices. Our findings indicate significant public health benefits, including more than 10,000 avoided premature deaths and thousands of avoided hospitalizations and emergency room visits. These benefits are valued at over $100 billion from 2020 to 2050, with urban areas experiencing greater benefits due to higher emissions reductions and larger populations.