What Goes Up May Come Down: Trends in the Upward and Downward Occupational Mobility of U.S. Workers

Abstract

This paper estimates annual upward and downward occupational mobility rates in the United States between 2018 and 2024. The authors find that only 6.6% of workers in the lowest-quality occupations moved into higher-quality occupations. Conversely, 8.0% of workers in middle-quality occupations moved into lower-quality occupations. To capture trends, the authors estimate annual mobility rates from 2011 onward and find increasing downward mobility through 2018 and increasing upward mobility through 2019. In both series, higher variability was found but little change comparing 2018 and 2024. The authors use multinomial logit regressions to estimate individual characteristics associated with upward and downward occupational mobility. Higher levels of education and younger age are associated with increased transitions to higher-quality occupations and reduced downward occupational transitions. The authors find mixed results for race, ethnicity, and gender, with results suggesting the importance of human capital investments and other interventions that promote upward mobility and may prevent downward mobility.