Assessing the Impact on Grid Infrastructure of Electrification Pathways for the Italian Residential Sector

Abstract

To achieve the decarbonization objectives described in the Paris Agreement, thermal appliances’ electrification is considered an essential factor. Unfortunately, the substitution of thermal appliances with electric alternatives will inevitably increase the load on the national electric system; thus, it is crucial to perform analyses to assess these policies’ impact. This paper, using as a reference the electrification pathways studied by Besagni et al. employing the MOIRAE (bottom-up MOdel to compute the energy consumption of the Italian REsidential sector) model, calculates the energy and power increase in the residential sector in 2030 due to the substitution of different thermal appliances and discusses potential policies to take into account the effect of their implementation on the Italian electric system. Even if the current generation capacity can sustain the electrification process without problems, investments will be needed to limit the possibility of congestions on transmission lines connecting the country’s northern and southern parts.