A forecasting method for harmful algal bloom(Hab)-prone regions allowing preemptive countermeasures based only on acoustic doppler current profiler measurements in a large river

Abstract

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been recognized as a serious problem for aquatic ecosystems and a threat to drinking water systems. The proposed method aimed to develop a practical and rapid countermeasure, enabling preemptive responses to massive algal blooms, through which prior to the algal bloom season we can identify HAB-prone regions based on estimations of where harmful algae initiates and develops significantly. The HAB-prone regions were derived from temperature, depth, flow velocity, and sediment concentration data based only on acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) without relying further on supplementary data collection, such as the water quality. For HAB-prone regions, we employed hot-spot analysis using K-means clustering and the Getis-Ord G*, in conjunction with the spatial autocorrelation of Moran’s I and the local index of spatial association (LISA). The validation of the derived HAB-prone regions was conducted for ADCP measurements located at the downstream of Nam and Nakdong River confluence, South Korea, which preceded three months of algal bloom season monitored by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The visual inspection demonstrated that the comparison resulted in an acceptable range of agreement and consistency between the predicted HAB-prone regions and actual UAV-based observations of actual algal blooms.