Analysis of export determinants in Sudan by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)

Abstract

Export increases the total demand in society, which in turn increases the level of income and more through the multiplier. This study investigates from an empirical point of view the determinants affecting Sudan's exports during the period (1977- 2018). The purpose was to identify the interrelation between the variables and the findings can be used for the development of the economy. The data obtained from the annual time series of the World Bank; the data was input into the Auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to find the results. The model used five explanatory variables (GDP, Growth Rate, Investment, Saving, Exchange Rate). The results showed that all explanatory variables had a positive effect on the exports. However, exchange rate was the only variable that showed negative effect on Sudan's exports that made up Sudan's low-income agriculture-based economy. This means that export of Sudan has affected by gross domestic product as well as investment rate.