The 2019–2020 Khalili (Iran) Earthquake Sequence—Anthropogenic Seismicity in the Zagros Simply Folded Belt?

Abstract

We investigate the origin of a long-lived earthquake cluster in the Fars arc of the Zagros Simply Folded Belt that is colocated with the major Shanul natural gas field. The cluster emerged in January 2019 and initially comprised small events of Mn ∼ 3–4. It culminated on 9 June 2020 with a pair of Mw 5.4 and 5.7 earthquakes, which was followed by >100 aftershocks. We assess the spatiotemporal evolution of the earthquake sequence using multiple event hypocenter relocations, waveform inversions, and Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements and models. We find that the early part of the sequence is spatially distinct from the 9 June 2020 earthquakes and their aftershocks. Moment tensors, centroid depths, and source parameter uncertainties of 15 of the largest (Mn ≥ 4.0) events show that the sequence is dominated by reverse faulting at shallow depths (mostly ≤4 km) within the sedimentary cover. InSAR modeling shows that the Mw 5.7 mainshock occurred at depths of 2–8 km with a rupture length and maximum slip of ∼20 km and ∼0.5 m, respectively. Our results suggest that the 2019–2020 Khalili earthquake sequence was likely influenced by operation of the Shanul field, though elevated natural seismicity in the Zagros makes the association difficult to prove. Understanding how to distinguish man-made from natural seismicity is helpful for hazard and risk assessment, notably in the Zagros, which is both seismically active and rich in oil and gas reserves.