Modelling a just, public and net self-sufficient renewable energy transition at regional level

Abstract

The present study intends to contribute to scientific discussions about the need to shift towards a fair, public and sustainable energy system at regional level by: proposing a reduced energy scenario to be achieved by the year 2050; offering a local and renewable generation proposal that is mostly publicly owned; and assessing territorial capacity to meet these goals. This is illustrated with the case of the Basque Country, in Europe, aligned with the reality of the Global North. With 79% of direct reliance on fossil fuels, the current primary energy footprint of the Basque Country stands at 40.1 MWh/cap per year including transformation and distribution losses and embedded energy in net imported goods —two to four times the planetary allowance. The study presents a model of a net self-sufficient energy transition for the Basque Country following a consumption-based approach. The results reveal that it would be technically feasible to achieve a 51% reduction in energy footprint (19.4 MWh/cap per year) by 2050, with a 386% increase in domestic renewable production, from the current 13.0 to 63.0 TWh. Furthermore, 65% of new renewable energy infrastructure would be installed under public ownership. This would imply installing solar panels on all rooftops and allocating 1.6% and 0.5% of the region's land area to photovoltaic and wind-power installations, respectively. Such scenario would necessarily require establishing democratic and just public safeguards to protect the socio-ecological fabric of the territory, and a strict regulatory framework against corporate land grabbing practices.