Safety Evaluation Method and Management Strategy for Aviation Flight Plans

Abstract

Aviation resources in the post-pandemic era are still in short supply. The increasing air traffic flow aggravates flight delays and makes it difficult to ensure aviation safety. Instead of focusing on the economic benefits, this paper proposes a quantitative method for evaluating the safety of flight plans. A flight plan safety index system is constructed through airspace environment modelling and a conflict probability calculation. The proposed method provides a quantitative basis for the management and adjustment of flight plans at the strategic level. Improving the flight plan management strategy from the perspective of conflict avoidance is expected to fundamentally reduce the potential conflict and workload of controllers and pilots during flight and improve the safety level of the whole air transport system. Finally, the performance of the proposed flight plan safety evaluation method is demonstrated through an illustrative air traffic scenario.