Laboratory simulation of fluid-driven seismic sequences in shallow crustal conditions

Abstract

We report new laboratory simulations of fluid-induced seismicity on pre-existing faults in sandstone. By introducing pore pressure oscillations, faults were activated or reactivated to generate seismic sequences. These sequences were analysed using a slip-forecast model. Furthermore, field data from the Monticello reservoir was used to verify the model. Our results suggest that short-term forecasting is reliant upon the final stages when crack communication begins, limiting reservoirinduced seismicity (RIS) forecasting strategies to short periods. In addition, our laboratory data confirms the general accuracy and robustness of short-term forecast techniques dealing with natural crack-linkage processes, whether strain driven or fluid driven, ranging from volcanic hazard mitigation to episodic tremors and slips. Finally, oscillating pore pressure can prolong the period of fluid-induced seismicity, and the aftershock decay rate is slower than that without oscillations. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.