Public Belief in the “Great Replacement Theory”

Abstract

The “Great Replacement Theory” (GRT) is an extremist narrative that has gained increased prominence within anti-immigration and conspiratorial discourses in Western societies, yet remains understudied. We first conceptualize the GRT as a narrative that typically claims that white majorities are being deliberately replaced by non-white immigrants in a secretive attempt by malevolent elites to undermine Western nations. Second, we devise measures of agreement with the GRT's several incremental components. Third, using original representative survey data from Germany, we explore and demonstrate widespread belief in even the most extreme propositions of the GRT and examine how these beliefs vary according to sociodemographics, conspiratorial tendencies, and political preferences. While further research is needed, our descriptive findings provide insight into the perhaps underestimated extremism of anti-immigration attitudes among some citizens and highlight the need for more nuanced assessments of immigration attitudes—and attitudes in general—beyond simple spectral measures.