Risk and human factor in carriage of dangerous goods by road

Abstract

Authors in the article present an original method of risk assessment, taking “human errors” into account in its assumptions, filling an existing methodological gap in this field of study. This article presents a general concept of a method: estimating risk assessment and modeling human factors as the main cause of a road accident. Fuzzy logic techniques have been used to generate the value of the parameter characterizing the human factor. The authors' “band” model is used in the calculation of the probability of a traffic accident in the transportation of hazardous products. Literary and original research has been conducted in the development of the model. This new approach to risk assessment takes into account in particular the effect of the human factor on the probability of an accident, as well as the diversity of the different segments making up the total route of a dangerous good. This method is useful for estimating the variability of risk, taking into account the human factor both on planned and existing routes depending on the categorization of road sections, the division into classes of dangerous goods, the effect of possible scenarios, and risks on transport safety.