DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AT THE LOCAL LEVEL IN TIMES OF UNCERTAINTY. THE CASE OF POMERANIA

Abstract

Contemporary demographic challenges are a particularly important and current problem, because it is population changes that have a significant impact on social and economic policy in regions. The effects of the ongoing demographic changes are noticeable especially on a local scale, where an unfavorable population situation in the long term may lead to the creation of vast depopulation territories. This publication aims to present the current demographic changes and their spatial differences in Pomerania’s local systems in times of uncertainty. The article analyses changes in the population number, indicates changes in the components of natural increase, i.e. the number of births and deaths, and discusses trends for changes in the migration of the population. The authors take the period from 2014 as the time of uncertainty, i.e. the military invasion of the Crimean Peninsula by the Russian Federation, i.e. the time when Europe faced the reality of war. In the research, use was made of cartographic methods of data and structure analysis as well as the typology of communes, taking into account the population rate changes. The main source material comes from the official statistical data of Statistics Poland in Warsaw, collected in the Local Data Bank (BDL) and from the Demography database. In addition, reports and studies prepared by state authorities and the Government Population Council were used. The results of the conducted research clearly indicate that the time of uncertainty reduced the population development rate in Pomerania’s local systems. The wartime reality and the epidemiological threat of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have enhanced the already outlined tendencies to reduce population dynamics and a radical decrease in birth rate, mainly due to an increase in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and a growing migration outflow from peripheral areas stimulated by economic and educational motives. The presented demographic trends are reflected in the spatial system of Pomerania with a clearly outlined division into two asymmetric parts, i.e. the eastern and western. Communes with a more favorable demographic situation can be found in the eastern part of Pomerania, occupied by the ethnically compact cultural area of Kashubia, which stands out positively in terms of procreative behavior on a national scale. The situation is different in Western Pomerania, which remains subject to deepening demographic depression, where the post-state farm past remains in the background.