Exploring Synergistic GHG Emissions Mitigation Potential and Costs of Room Air Conditioners

Abstract

This study explores the potential of synergistically reducing direct (refrigerant) and indirect (electricity) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the global room air conditioning (RAC) sector, based on 80% of global RAC manufactured in China. Three scenarios are evaluated: Business-as-usual (BAU) based on maintaining refrigerant and energy efficiency levels from 2021 China RAC sales shares, Kigali Amendment compliant with 10% energy efficiency improvement by 2025 (KAE), and accelerated refrigerant transition and energy efficiency improvement (ATE). Each scenario considers the costs of refrigerant and efficiency measures for export market groups based on Kigali Amendment classifications. BAU predicts around 1 Gt CO2-eq average annual global RAC emissions (2022-2060). Cumulative emission reductions in China’s RAC manufacturing under KAE and ATE are 12.2 and 17.2 Gt CO2-eq A5II and A5I (except China), presenting cost-effective abatement measures, with average costs of -$51.4 and -$68.8/t CO2-eq in KAE and ATE. Cumulative average abatement costs are around $18 and $4/t CO2-eq globally. KAE and ATE scenarios would avoid surface temperature rises of 0.023 (±0.002) °C and 0.027 (±0.003) °C, respectively, versus BAU. Collaboration between China and importing countries is urged to enhance energy efficiency in RACs traded, ensuring sustainable mitigation aligned with the Kigali Amendment.