Centralised and decentralised deployment models

Abstract

The sectoral innovation system perspective has been developed as an analytical framework to analyse and understand innovation dynamics within and across various sectors. Most of the research conducted on sectoral innovation systems has focused on an aggregate-level analysis of entire sectors. This chapter argues that a disaggregated (sub-sectoral) focus is more suited to policy-oriented work on the development and diffusion of renewable energy, particularly in countries with rapidly developing energy systems and open technology choices. Based on preliminary insights from research carried out in 2016 and 2017, including mapping, interviews, and policy framework analysis, it focuses on size, distinguishing between small-scale (mini-grids) and large-scale (grid-connected) deployment paths in renewable energy. We explore how wind and solar markets in Kenya differ in terms of development and organisation, both across and within sectors, by examining the development and diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind technology and how they evolve in these sub-sectoral systems. We find that innovation and diffusion dynamics differ more between small and large than between wind and solar. This has important analytical implications because the disaggregated perspective allows us to identify trajectories that cut across conventionally defined core technologies. This is valuable for ongoing discussions of electrification pathways in developing countries. We conclude the chapter by distilling the policy implications of these findings in terms of the requirements and incentive mechanisms that shape different pathways.