The limits of autocratisation in Indonesia: power dispersal and elite competition in a compromised democracy

Abstract

How does democracy survive in a polity that has witnessed consistent autocratisation trends for an extended period of time? In Indonesia, new patterns of autocratisation and broader democratic decline emerged in the late 2000s, but unlike some of its Southeast Asian neighbours, the country has not crossed over into the territory of full-fledged autocracy. This article argues that two interrelated factors explain this outcome: first, power was so widely dispersed in the early democratic transition that its renewed monopolisation would be hard to achieve; and, second, this power dispersal has underpinned an intense inter-elite rivalry that rebels against any attempt at restoring personalist autocracy. At the same time, elites have cooperated in the weakening of democracy as long as a residual framework for competitive rotation of power remains in place.