Global burden of colorectal cancer attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2021, with projections of mortality to 2035

Abstract

Background: The global burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) attributable to metabolic risk factors is increasing. It is crucial to analyze the global epidemiological patterns of CRC attributable to metabolic risk factors and predict future trends. Methods: Detailed data on CRC mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to metabolic risk factors were extracted for this study using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 study to assess the burden of CRC from 1990 to 2021 by global, regional, national, and sociodemographic index (SDI) regions and quantify the time trend using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models projected the global mortality from 2022 to 2035. Results: The global number of CRC deaths due to metabolic risk factors increased from 70,916 in 1990 to 172,993 in 2021, a 2.4-fold increase. CRC mortality and DALYs attributable to high body mass index (BMI) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) increased significantly at the global level from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, the GBD regions with the highest CRC age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) due to high BMI and high FPG were in Central Europe. The ASMR of CRC attributable to high BMI and high FPG among males is expected to increase from 2022 to 2035. Conclusion: CRC mortality and DALYs attributable to metabolic factors are increasing. Reducing the burden of CRC due to high BMI and FPG levels is critically needed.