Time Series Chlorophyll-A Concentration Data Analysis: A Novel Forecasting Model for Aquaculture Industry †

Abstract

Eutrophication in fresh water has become a critical challenge worldwide and chlorophyll-a content is a key water quality parameter that indicates the extent of eutrophication and algae concentration in a body of water. In this paper, a forecasting model for the high accuracy prediction of chlorophyll-a content is proposed to enable aquafarm managers to take remediation actions against the occurrence of toxic algal blooms in the aquaculture industry. The proposed model combines the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) technique and a deep learning (DL) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network (NN). With this hybrid approach, the time-series data are firstly decomposed with the aid of the EEMD algorithm into manifold intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Secondly, a multi-attribute selection process is employed to select the group of IMFs with strong correlations with the measured real chlorophyll-a dataset and integrate them as inputs for the DL LSTM NN. The model is built on water quality sensor data collected from the Loch Duart salmon aquafarm in Scotland. The performance of the proposed novel hybrid predictive model is validated by comparing the results against the dataset. To measure the overall accuracy of the proposed novel hybrid predictive model, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used.