The effect of Pare-Pare City's development on land use/land cover change in Karajae Watershed

Abstract

Pare-Pare City is one of the centers of industry, trade and sea transportation in Eastern Indonesia. It also continues to be developed marked by changes in land use/land cover (LULC) now and in the future. Pare-pare city's development will greatly affect the Karajae watershed as a boundary of the hydrological ecosystem. The purpose of the study was to analyze the effect of the development of Pare-Pare City on the LULC of the Karajae watershed. Analysis of LULC change with the approach of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-markov) for LULC projection, and Binary Logistic Regression for the impact of City development. Change in LULC in the actual period (2004-2018) indicates a significant increasing of settlement and dryland agriculture area, while secondary dryland forest, grassland and shrub have been reducing. However, the LULC projection in 2032 shows a huge change than the actual period. Settlement experienced an increasing in area twice than the actual period (2004-2018), this was followed by an increasing in deforestation as well. However, it is different from agriculture which has extensive decreasing, and shrub has increasing of area. So that it shows the pattern of shifting cultivation conducted by the farming community. The changes in LULC in the future are influenced by the settlement and the road network.