Estimation of the risk of death during the first year after acute myocardial infarction from systolic time intervals during the first week

Abstract

Patients who survived for the first seven days after acute myocardial infarction were followed up for a further 51 weeks. During these 51 weeks there were 123 deaths and 477 eventual survivors. Approximately half of the deaths occurred during the first 3 weeks of follow up. The deaths were predicted with 75% sensitivity and 73% specificity by a discriminant analysis based upon six variables seen during the first 7 days; predictions of death and survival were 55% and 92% accurate respectively. These six variables were, in ascending order of prognostic importance, the occurrence of bundle branch blocks, the administration of a diuretic, the age of the patient, the presence of diabetes mellitus, a previous myocardial infarction, and the ratio of the measured left ventricular pre-ejection and ejection periods. Many other monitored variables, although univariately associated with death, contributed nothing further to the multivatiate assessment of mortality risk.