Cambios en los patrones de endemismo de los mamíferos terrestres de México por el calentamiento global

Abstract

There are some analyses about the impact of climatic change in the distribution of Mexican land mammals. However, this impact has not been analyzed on areas of endemism. For this reason, the aim of this analysis was to determine the climate change effects in the patterns of endemism of the mammals of Mexico, regarding the climatic differences between 2 time periods, present time (1961-1990) and future time (2080-2099). For this purpose, 405 species distribution models of the Mexican land mammals were obtained applying a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), and using their projections under climate scenario A2 according to 3 general circulation models. Later, an Endemicity Analysis was performed in order to identify areas of endemism and their endemic taxa. Twenty-three areas of endemism in the present time were identified, while 14-16 areas of endemism were identified for the future time. Finally, a comparison between present and future time is presented, using spatial analysis and measuring vulnerability of the areas of endemicity with a relative vulnerability factor. Loss of patterns of endemism, geographic displacement, surfaces reduction and change in species composition of the areas of endemism show the negative impact that global warming may cause on the endemism patterns.