Observed changes in hurricane-driven waves explain the dynamics of modern cuspate shorelines

Abstract

A comparison between historical and recent shoreline-change rates on the U.S. east coast (based on observed shoreline positions from the last century and a half) shows that emergent, large-scale, cuspate coastline features are changing shape, becoming more asymmetrical. This change in coastline shape arises from spatial shifts in the location of erosion and accretion zones. Using a numerical model of coastline change forced by wave-driven alongshore sediment flux, we show that a previously identified shift in hurricane-generated wave climate explains the patterns of coastline change we observe. Our results reveal a previously unrecognized type of large-scale, chronic landscape response to changing forcing. Though demonstrated here for a cuspate coastline, similar large-scale morphological adjustments are likely to occur along coastlines of varying morphology in the future - as global warming continues, along with the associated intensification of storms. Our approach allows for constraining and predicting future shifts in coastline shape.