Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: A model including α-fetoprotein improves the performance of milan criteria

Abstract

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of this study was to generate an improved prognostic model for predicting recurrence in liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: Predictors of recurrence were tested by a Cox model analysis in a training cohort of 537 patients transplanted for HCC. A prognostic score was developed and validated in a national cohort of 435 patients followed up prospectively. RESULTS: α-Fetoprotein (AFP) independently predicted tumor recurrence and correlated with vascular invasion and differentiation. At a Cox score threshold of 0.7 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.701; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.76; accuracy, 75.8%), a model combining log10 AFP, tumor size, and number was highly predictive of tumor recurrence and death. By using a simplified version of the model, with untransformed AFP values, a cut-off value of 2 was identified. In the validation cohort, a score greater than 2 predicted a marked increase in 5-year risk of recurrence (50.6% ± 10.2% vs 8.8% ± 1.7%; P