Long-Term Bioclimatic Modelling the Distribution of the Fire-Bellied Toad, Bombina Bombina (Anura, Bombinatoridae), under the Influence of Global Climate Change

Abstract

The article describes the potential distribution area of B. bombina and figure out the significant climatic factors of the species at a home range scale. This species is listed on Appendix II of the Bern Convention and on Annexes II and IV of the EU Natural Habitats Directive. It is protected by national legislation in many countries, occurs in many protected areas, and is listed in many national and sub-national Red Data books and lists. We collected the occurrence records and a set of climatic variables including 19 factors from 10' resolution historical (summarizing annual trends, seasonality and extreme conditions during 1961-1990) and projected data (2050) available at the CliMond database. As a result, under climate predictions for 2050 there may be a substantial north and north-west shift of optimal habitat. Under such a scenario B. bombina populations may suffer mostly in the east and south of Ukraine. Under the modelled scenario the species representation in protected areas throughout the home range should be considered, but especially in Ukraine.