Prediction of land use changes at a metropolitan city using integrated cellular automata: past and future

Abstract

In the cities of developing countries like India, rapid and uncontrolled urbanization has been taking place due to continuous population growth in last few decades. As a result, land use/land cover (LU/LC) is changing very fast in the cities of developing countries. Therefore, this study aims to examine the changes in LU/LC pattern in Delhi during 1991–2018 and simulate the future LU/LC pattern of Delhi for 2030. The LU/LC pattern mapping was done from Landsat datasets using k-means clustering technique. The cellular automata (CA) technique was integrated with artificial neural network (ANN) for simulating the future LU/LC patterns. The projected LU/LC pattern shows that Delhi’s built-up area will increase to nearly 60% of the total area of city, while cropland and open land will decrease to 19.86 and 0.15%, respectively. The highest increase in built-up area was observed in the northern, western, and south-western sub-districts of Delhi. Outcomes of the study may be used for future land use planning in Delhi and other cities. In addition, they can also provide valuable insights for the development of transportation network and other facilities and amenities in the areas of future urban expansion.