Mailborne transmission of anthrax: Modeling and implications

Abstract

A mathematical model is developed to analyze the transmission of inhalational anthrax through the postal system by cross-contamination of mail. The model consists of state vectors describing the numbers of cross-contaminated letters generated, the numbers of anthrax spores on these letters, the numbers of resulting infections in recipients, and matrices of transition probabilities acting on these vectors. The model simulates the recent outbreak in the United States, and provides a general framework to investigate the potential impact of possible future outbreaks.