Parameter estimation using the genetic algorithm and its impact on quantitative precipitation forecast

Abstract

In this study, optimal parameter estimations are performed for both physical and computational parameters in a mesoscale meteorological model, and their impacts on the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) are assessed for a heavy rainfall case occurred at the Korean Peninsula in June 2005. Experiments are carried out using the PSU/NCAR MM5 model and the genetic algorithm (GA) for two parameters: the reduction rate of the convective available potential energy in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme for cumulus parameterization, and the Asselin filter parameter for numerical stability. The fitness function is defined based on a QPF skill score. It turns out that each optimized parameter significantly improves the QPF skill. Such improvement is maximized when the two optimized parameters are used simultaneously. Our results indicate that optimizations of computational parameters as well as physical parameters and their adequate applications are essential in improving model performance.