The potential geographical distribution of Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen (Orthoptera: Acrididae) is one of the most harmful species of Acrididae. It causes extensive damage to gramineous crops. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of L. m. tibetensis. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions, L. m. tibetensis will be able to establish itself throughout much of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, including Qinghai,Tibet and Sichuan province. A total of 94.23% of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau's land mass or 2.22×106 km2, is climatically suitable under current climatic conditions. In this study, the potential distribution of L. m. tibetensis under future climate scenarios was projected and quantified climatically suitable areas. In Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the total suitable climate land mass was increased by 0.16×106 km2 or 0.70% until 2100. However, compared to 2020 and 2050, the suitable land mass was decreased by 0.47×106 km2 and 0.17×10 6 km2. The most optimal area would increase 0.16 ×106 km2 until 2100, the most of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would be expected to offer optimal climatic conditions for the possible spread and establishment of the pest. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution of L. m. tibetensis projected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. © 2013 IFIP International Federation for Information Processing.