From Shielding to Pushing: Evolving Risk Management Regimes in China’s Infrastructure Export Industrial Policy

Abstract

This paper examines China’s global infrastructure financing through the lens of its industrial policy for promoting infrastructure export—an industry that has evolved from an “infant” in the 1980s into a major global player. It focuses on the evolution of the state’s risk management regime—the institutional arrangements through which risks are categorized and allocated across firms, financial institutions, and the state. Tracing this evolution, the paper identifies a shift from shielding to pushing: from the late 1990s to mid-2000s, the state absorbed key risks to enable market entry for the infant industry; between the mid-2000s and mid-2010s, it expanded risk coverage to support rapid industry growth; since the mid-2010s, it has begun reallocating and reintroducing market risk exposures to discipline capital and promote upgrading. This paper makes three key contributions. First, it highlights risk management as a crucial yet understudied realm of industrial policy. Second, it argues that as infant industries mature, industrial policy must shift the focus from capital mobilization to capital disciplining, addressing the moral hazard created by earlier policies. Third, it offers insights into how China’s domestic policy dynamics shapes its global infrastructure engagements. Contrary to prevailing interpretations that China is “de-risking,” the paper contends that the state is instead “re-risking”—pushing firms and financiers to internalize greater commercial risk as part of a broader strategy to advance industry maturity and global competitiveness.