Are Populists Good for Growth? The Effects of the Populist Regime in Poland, 2016–2023

Abstract

This article examines the economic growth effects of Poland’s populist experiment under Law and Justice (2016–2023). Using the IMF pre-policy forecasts as a counterfactual and growth accounting with international controls, it finds that post-2016 expansion was driven largely by unanticipated labor inflows and partner-country dynamics. Once these factors are removed, output growth falls short of forecast baselines. We trace persistent growth headwinds to supply-side channels: erosion of institutional quality and rule of law; expansion of state ownership and cash transfers crowding out growth-enhancing public spending, particularly on education; and an energy price wedge shifting value added away from manufacturing. Education policy reversals further reduced future human capital accumulation. Although Poland’s populism rose from identity politics rather than economic distress, its economic playbook and costs mirror experiences elsewhere. The findings suggest that populist governance weakens long-run growth potential irrespective of its political origins.