One Million Lives Saved per Year: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Global Plan to End Tuberculosis, 2023-2030 and beyond

Abstract

This report presents a cost-benefit analysis of increased spending on tuberculosis (TB) using impacts and costs drawn from the Global Plan to End Tuberculosis, 2023-2030. The analysis indicates that the return on TB spending is substantial with a centrally estimated benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 46, meaning every US$ 1 invested in TB yields US$ 46 in benefits. Alternative specifications using different baselines, interventions, cost profiles, and discount rates still yield robustly high BCRs, in the range of 28-84. This report also shows that TB investment would avert substantial mortality, estimated at 27.3 million averted deaths over the 28-year period between 2023 and 2050 inclusive: almost 1 million averted deaths per year on average. Accounting for all estimated direct and indirect costs, the cost per averted death is slightly over US$ 2000. Interventions to address TB represent exceptional value-for-money.