Computer Simulations of Ancient Voyaging

Abstract

For those interested in ancient voyaging many questions cannot be answered with the available data. What was the probability of chance discovery of islands? What were the likely levels of success for voyages given particular seasonal variations in the marine environment? What were the survival rates? What navigational difficulties were encountered? Some of these questions can be answered in qualitative terms, but if accurate comparisons and assessments are to be made, quantitative data are necessary. While computer simulations of ancient voyaging can provide such evidence, its interpretation can also be a problem. A small number of such simulations have been attempted, some more appropriate to the issues of interest than others. These simulations are discussed briefly below. But the primary focus of this essay is to point out some of the major considerations in developing simulations of ancient voyaging and to examine the results. The example used here is the prehistoric peopling of the Caribbean islands and subsequent contact with the mainland.