Credibility in Crises: How Patrons Reassure Their Allies

Abstract

How do citizens of US allies assess different reassurance strategies? This article investigates the effects of US reassurance policies on public opinion in allied states. We design and conduct a survey experiment in five Central-Eastern European states-Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania-in March 2022. Set against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this experiment asked respondents to evaluate four types of reassurance strategies, each a critical tool in US crisis response policy: military deployments, diplomatic summitry, economic sanctions, and public reaffirmations of security guar- antees. The international security literature typically values capabilities for their deterrence and reassurance benefits, while largely dismissing public reaffirmations as "cheap talk"and economic sanctions as being ineffective. Yet we find preferences for the use of economic sanctions and public statements as reassurance strategies during crises, in part because these approaches help states manage escalation risks.