Spatiotemporal evolution, pattern of diffusion, and influencing factors of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hainan Province, China

Abstract

Within 1 month after the first case occurred in Hainan Province, China, the number of confirmed cases rose to 168, and there was no increase in almost 3 months. As the southernmost province and a famous tourist destination in China, its regular economic exchanges and high-intensity population movements may affect the spread of the epidemic. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution, the pattern of diffusion, and factors influencing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Hainan Province. Basic and geographic information of confirmed COVID-19 cases was obtained from government websites and other official media. We examined the groups of infection and calculated the diffusion ratio to demonstrate the trend of the epidemic. Map drawing, spatial analysis, and partial least squares regression were used to express the spatiotemporal evolution, the pattern of diffusion, and factors affecting the epidemic. Furthermore, we have made recommendations on the formulation and adaptation of possible future preventive steps. Results show that the COVID-19 epidemic in Hainan Province has substantial spatial heterogeneity but minimal distribution. The tourist city and central city have formed a dual-core pattern for the spread of the epidemic, which could extend to other similar regions. Population density, mobility, and level of urban development have been the major factors of epidemic distribution in the study area.