Study on the Early Warning Mechanism for Industrial Land Redevelopment in High-Tech Zones: A Multi-Dimensional Evaluation Based on Enterprise Life Cycle, Park Compatibility, and Land Use Efficiency

Abstract

In the era of new productive forces, the efficient utilization of industrial land in high-tech zones is critical for fostering technological innovation, intelligent manufacturing, and green development. However, constrained by limited land reserves, inefficient stock utilization, and sluggish industrial upgrading, high-tech zones must establish a scientific early warning mechanism for industrial land redevelopment. This study constructs a four-tier early warning system (normal, alert, warning, and response) based on three key dimensions: enterprise life cycle, enterprise–park compatibility, and industrial land use efficiency. Using the Jinan High-Tech Zone as a case study, this study conducts an empirical analysis of 360 industrial land parcels from 2020 to 2022, employing DEA, fixed effects models, GIS visualization, and MCDA methods. The results indicate a strong correlation between enterprise life cycle and land use efficiency, with significant spatial differentiation in enterprise–park compatibility. Efficient land use is concentrated in areas with well-defined functions and high industrial agglomeration. This study identifies 360 land use scenarios, with 12% classified as normal, 28% requiring monitoring, 52% requiring optimization, and 8% necessitating redevelopment. Based on these findings, a “warning–monitoring–regulation” closed-loop management model is proposed, providing decision-making support for dynamic land optimization and sustainable development in high-tech zones.