Automated guidance for predicting quantitative precipitation.

Abstract

An operational automated guidance system ofr producing both probability of precipitation amount (PoPA) and categorical forecasts of precipitation amount for 233 cities in the conterminous U.S. is described. To test the PoPA system, operational forecasts at 215 cities were verified over a co-month period. The PoPA categorical forecasts were compared by season to those produced subjectively at NMC and by the LFM and PE models. Threat scores and categorical biases were computed. The results indicate that, overall, the PoPA categorical forecasts were better than those of the PE and LFM models and were almost as good as those prepared subjectively at NMC. -from Authors