Modelling and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 in Cameroon and Assessing the Governmental Measures (March–September 2020)

Abstract

COVID-19 is an acute respiratory illness in humans caused by a coronavirus, capable of producing severe symptoms and, in some cases, death, especially in older people and those with underlying health conditions. It was originally identified in China in 2019 and became a pandemic in 2020. On 6 March 2020, Cameroon recorded its first cases of infection with COVID-19. The Government of Cameroon (GOC) took 13 barrier measures on 18 March 2020. On 1 May 2020, 19 new measures were adopted, easing restrictions and encouraging economic activity. On 1 June, schools and universities were reopened, after which massive screening began to take place throughout the country. In this study, we have modelled the COVID-19 epidemic in Cameroon in order to assess the governmental measures of response and predict the behaviour of epidemic As a result of these measures, the pandemic evolved in three phases. The first phase began on 18 March and ended on 15 May 2020. During this phase, the actual curve of cumulative positive cases based on field data closely fit the theoretical curve resulting from mathematical modelling. In the beginning of May, we predicted that nearly 3000 positive cases would be declared by mid-May 2020. The actual data confirmed these predictions: there were 2954 cases as of 15 May 2020. The second phase, beyond mid-May 2020, encompasses the period when the GOC’s relaxation of measures takes effect. This phase was marked by an acceleration of the cumulative number of positive cases starting in the third week of May, postponing the expected peak by two weeks. Under Phase 2 conditions, the onset of the peak will occur in early June and extend through the first two weeks of June. However, a third phase occurs in the first week of June, with the reopening of schools and universities combined with massive screening; the peak is therefore expected in the second week of June (around 15 June). The GOC should, at this stage, strengthen its response plan by tripling the current coverage capacity to regain the first phase convergence conditions associated with the first 13 measures. The pandemic will begin its descent in the month of august, but COVID-19 will remain endemic for at least one year.